The trade and industry department’s industrial policy, released two weeks ago, earmarks forestry, paper and pulp, and furniture as a lead sector for development.

The government wants to establish forests on 140000ha of land, 100000ha in Eastern Cape and 40000ha in KwaZulu-Natal, over the next 10 years with the aim of creating 41000 jobs at plantation level and 2129 jobs at primary processing level.

The department estimates more than R1,5bn will need to be invested for the afforestation, with “substantial” further investments needed to establish downstream processing enterprises.

But independent commentators maintain the industry in its current form is not sustainable and that its expansion would perpetuate existing problems.

“We have been trying for years to draw government’s attention to the fact that SA’s forestry and timber industry is largely unsustainable. In essence, taxpayers pay to make the timber industry profitable,” said Wally Manne of the Timberwatch Coalition, an environmental nongovernmental organisation.

“The consequence of industrial interventions in the past is that they enabled industries to be established that would otherwise not exist through all kinds of subsidies. Now we sit with that legacy,” said Manne.

He said the government’s plan for the forestry sector was not based on proper economic assessments and disregarded the effect on the rural poor.

“If you do a cost benefit analysis, it shows the industry not to be viable . These strategies are pursued in the name of rural development but they often end up disenfranchising the poor, driving them off land and out of jobs. No studies are available to show how rural people are supposed to benefit.”

Critics have similarly observed that the government’s motor industry development programme has had a rather muted effect on job creation and is patently bad for consumers. While the programme is costing the country millions, the real beneficiaries are multinational companies, whose profit margins are boosted. The government is persisting with the programme.

W ith the development and expansion of the forestry sector there are graver concerns, however. By the government’s own admission, SA is expected to experience a permanent water shortage from 2020. In the face of a looming water crisis the plan to aggressively expand water-intensive sectors such as forestry, biofuels and agro-processing was curious, observers said.

Paul Desmet, an independent environmental consultant who assisted with a biodiversity assessment as part of the strategic environmental assessment for the water affairs and forestry department, said the situation in Eastern Cape was viable, with many rivers untapped. However, KwaZulu-Natal, with vast areas under plantation, was water stressed. “We should be taking forests out to alleviate the problem,” Desmet said.

Commentators also criticised the government for not consulting properly when formulating the policy. “This points to a need for more rigorous assessment of water deployment … T here is no reference to a water strategy, which begs the question: is there one at all?” said Earthlife Africa’s Richard Worthington.